LWS TR&T Focus Teams:
Prediction of the Interplanetary Magnetic Field Vector Bz at L1
Team Chair: Angelos Vourlidas
Target Description: There has been significant progress in recent years in our ability to observe Coronal Mass Ejections (CMEs) from space. However, the net effect of CMEs on the geomagnetic field is a function of both CME speed and the embedded Interplanetary Magnetic Field (IMF) vector Bz. It would be valuable to the operations community if highly reliable forecasts were available of the vector Bz prior to the passage of the CME at L1.Reliable forecasts of the Bx and By components are also desirable, but of secondary importance. A time series prediction of Bz is fundamentally important in the provision of space weather forecasts because:
measures of success: The goal of this Focused Science Topic is to quantify accurately the polarity and magnitude of the IMF Bz for the next 12-24 hours. The prime measure of success for this work would be a good agreement in the time series of predicted and observed BZ values at L1. An added bonus would be the ability to predict all three components of magnetic field, especially if either Bx or By are significantly larger than Bz.
solicited investigations: It is expected that the focus team will include, but certainly not be limited to, the following types of investigations: