ROSES ID: NNH08ZDA001N Selection Year: 2009
Program Element: Focused Science Topic
Principal Investigator: Friedrich Busse
Affiliation(s): University of California, Los Angeles
Project Member(s):
Kosovichev, Alexander G Co-I New Jersey Institute of Technology
Brandenburg, Axel Collaborator Nordita
Simitev, Radostin Dimov Collaborator University of Glasgow
Summary:
Understanding the dynamo mechanism and predicting the cyclic solar activity are among the most important key problems of the LWS program. Recent advances in dynamo modeling and magnetographic and helioseismic observations have provided important insights into the basic mechanism of the solar cycle. However, the physics-based forecasting of the strength and timing of the solar cycles is still not possible because of numerous uncertainties in the parameter values of dynamo models, such as kinetic and magnetic helicities, magnetic field diffusion and the magnetic flux transport by meridional circulation. The observational data provide only weak constraints on the surface magnetic field and on the plasma dynamics of the solar interior where the dynamo operates. We propose to investigate a new approach for modeling and forecasting magnetic properties of the solar cycles by applying data assimilation methods to solar dynamo models. This approach will allow us to determine the importance of various model characteristics for estimating of the physical state of the solar dynamo and for forecasting the future cycle.Performance Year | Reference | Investigation Type | Actions |
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1 | Simitev, R. D.; Busse, F. H.; (2012), How Far can Minim... | not set | |
1 | Simitev, Radostin D.; Busse, Friedrich H.; (2012), Sola... | not set |
Performance Year | Reference | Actions |
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1 | Kosovichev, A.G.; Arlt, R.; Bonanno, A.; Brandenburg,Â... |