Robust Prediction of the Interplanetary Magnetic Field using Statistical and Physics-Based Model Approaches

ROSES ID: NNH14ZDA001N      Selection Year: 2014      

Program Element: Targeted Science Team

• Science Topic: Prediction of the Interplanetary Magnetic Field Vector Bz at 1AU

Principal Investigator: Pete Riley

Affiliation(s): SAIC

Project Member(s):
pizzo, victor j Co-I NOAA/SEC
Ulrich, Roger K. Co-I University of California at Los Angeles
Hoeksema, J. Todd Co-I Stanford University
Reinard, Alysha Co-I CIRES
Russell, Christopher T Co-I University of California Los Angeles
Owens, Mathew James Collaborator University of Reading
de Koning, Curt A Co-I NOAA
Horbury, Timothy Simon Collaborator Imperial College London
Lionello, Roberto Co-I/Science PI Predictive Science Incorporated
Linker, Jon A Collaborator Predictive Science, Inc.
Liu, Yang Co-I Stanford University
Angryk, Rafal Co-I Georgia State University
Martens, Petrus C Co-I Georgia State University

Summary:

Using a combination of statistical and physics-based models, we will develop a robust scheme for predicting the value of Bz at 1 AU (as well as its associated uncertainties) at least 24 hours in advance. Our diverse team includes the necessary expertise to achieve the goals of the proposed work and our unique, comprehensive approach will provide both a quantitative ground-truth for a variety of techniques as well as a rigorous methodology for improving predictability.

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