Analyzing the Web of Correlations and Time Lags between the Solar Wind and the Inner Magnetosphere: Systems Science with CCA

ROSES ID: NNH15ZDA001N      Selection Year: 2015      

Program Element: SCOSTEP/VarSITI

Principal Investigator: Joseph Borovsky

Affiliation(s): Space Science Institute

Project Member(s):
Consolini, Giuseppe Collaborator Self
Ostgaard, Nikolai Collaborator Birkeland Centre for Space Science, University of Bergen, Norway
Denton, Michael H Co-I/Science PI Space Science Institute

Summary:

The overarching objective of this LWS Investigation is to use a systems-science approach to increase understanding of the connections, time lags, feedback loops, and hysteresis in the reaction of the inner-magnetosphere system to the solar wind. The mathematical technique of canonical correlation analysis (CCA) will be used to simultaneously analyze a global data set (millions of points) comprised of multiple measures of the solar wind and multiple measures of the inner magnetosphere. Specific objectives are (1) To determine and assess the dominant correlations and time lags between the multiple variables of the solar wind and the multiple measures of the inner magnetosphere, (2) To determine the important hysteresis terms in the reaction of the inner magnetosphere to driving by the solar wind, (3) To identify correlations with known physical processes and to highlight unexplained correlations, (4) To exploit CCA methods to gain information about causality and information flow in the web of correlations, and (5) To interact with the VarSITI SPeCIMEN community to attain its goals.



Canonical correlation analysis is an ideal tool when causes and effects cannot be described or measured by a single variable, which is the case for the solar wind driving the highly coupled inner magnetosphere. CCA has a demonstrated ability to uncover patterns in the reaction of the magnetosphere-ionosphere system to the solar wind. In this NASA LWS Investigation, CCA will be applied to the inner magnetosphere driven by the solar wind. A multiyear , "Grand Inner-Magnetosphere Data Set , will be assembled from multiple time-dependent variables measuring the plasmasphere, the plasma cloak, the ion plasma sheet (ring current), the electron plasma sheet, substorm-injected electrons, the electron radiation belt, the ion radiation belt, ULF amplitudes, magnetospheric convection, magnetic-field morphology, particle anisotropies, plus other measures that become available from the SPeCIMEN community. The solar wind data set will be the multiyear OMNI2 data plus a new solar-source categorization of the solar wind.



CCA techniques have been developed to identify and quantify hysteresis in the reaction of the Earth to the solar wind and to identify feedback processes. Techniques will be developed in this Investigation to study time lags and the flow of information between the solar wind and the inner magnetosphere. CCA methodologies will be exploited that can provide information about which correlations are causal and which are spurious.



This proposed investigation directly supports Key Science Goal 2 of the Decadal Survey: , "Determine the dynamics and coupling of Earth , " s magnetosphere, ionosphere, and atmosphere and their response to solar and terrestrial inputs , . This investigation supports the NASA Heliophysics Division Science Goal 2 , "Advance our understanding of the connections that link the Sun, the Earth and planetary space environments, and the outer reaches of our solar system , . This proposed Investigation supports the NASA Strategic Subgoal 2.2 , "Understand the Sun and its interactions with Earth and the solar system , from the 2011 NASA Strategic Plan and it directly supports the Heliophysics Science Question , "How do the Earth and planetary systems respond? , . This Investigation supports the LWS Program Objective , "Understand solar variability and its effects on the space and Earth environments with an ultimate goal of a reliable predictive capability of solar variability and response , . This investigation uses a systems science approach to directly address the VarSITI SPeCIMEN overarching question , "How does the inner magnetosphere respond as a coupled system to Sun/solar-wind driving? , and this investigation will help to achieve the SPeCIMEN stated anticipated outcome , "A better understanding of the physical processes leading to a series of coupled, related models that quantitatively predict the dynamical evolution of the inner magnetospheric state. ,

Publications:

Performance Year	Reference	Investigation Type	Actions
1	Borovsky, Joseph E.; Cayton, Thomas E.; Denton, Michael H.; ...	not set
1	Podesta, John J.; Borovsky, Joseph E.; (2016), Relationship ...	not set
1	Borovsky, Joseph E.; Denton, Michael H.; (2016), Compression...	not set
1	Borovsky, Joseph E.; (2016), The plasma structure of coron...	not set
1	Borovsky, Joseph E.; Denton, Michael H.; (2016), The trailin...	not set
1	Denton, M. H.; Borovsky, J. E.; (2017), The response of the ...	not set
1	Borovsky, Joseph E.; Yakymenko, Kateryna; (2017), Substorm o...	not set

Presentations:

Performance Year	Reference	Actions
1	Borovsky, J.; Denton, M.; (2016), Predicting the Reaction...

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